Clinton and Pollsters Lose

On November 8, Hillary Clinton lost her bid for president of the United States. “Shocking” and “upset” were some descriptions of the defeat. National and state polls had put Clinton ahead for most of the race. News media conveyed the certitude of the polls, revealing an axis of inaccuracy as state after state fell into Donald Trump’s column.

This is not the first mass failure to foresee the next president. In the 1948 election, New York governor Thomas Dewey was considered the favorite over incumbent Harry Truman, with major media reinforcing polls’ conclusions. This led to one of most famous images in American political history as a triumphant Truman held up a copy of the Chicago Tribune with its errant headline on election night.

How could so many polls have been so wrong? Errors in both methodology and the data gathered are the likely reasons, mistakes that can affect political polling as well as research for marketing and public relations. Issues stem from the necessity to examine a small portion (the sample) of the electorate/marketplace/public (the target population) to draw overall conclusions.

Research errors can include:

  • Sampling Error–the sample does not accurately represent the target population.
  • Frame Error–the criteria for selecting the sample are inaccurate or incomplete.
  • Respondent Error–respondents intentionally or unintentionally give incorrect answers.

Republican strategist Mike Murphy said on election night, “Tonight data died.” The widespread failure of this election’s polls could be due to a number of factors relating to classic research errors such as those above. Polls may have underrepresented Republicans initially opposed to Trump who ultimately voted for him, leading to a sampling error. Trump supporters may have given inaccurate answers, respondent error possibly due to the best light phenomenon, avoiding criticism of a seemingly undesirable choice or action. They may have shunned exit polls, nonresponse that creates a sampling error.

Not all polls and media missed the mark. The USC/LA Times Poll and the Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP Poll gave Trump the advantage going into November 8. Critics dismissed the polls as outliers, compelling Dan Schnur, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at USC, to defend the USC/LA Times Poll in a pre-election op-ed that explained its unique methods.

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Polls, media (represented by the cartoon itself), and a smug Thomas Dewey line up against Harry Truman in the 1948 election.

In his textbook, The Practice of Public Relations, Fraser Seitel reminds us that political polls are snapshots of public mood, not predictors of outcomes. Their value rests on applying the latest insights and methods while diligently avoiding traditional research flaws. The media largely accepted the bulk of 2016 presidential polls. The Clinton campaign did as well in not anticipating the threat to its Rust Belt firewall of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Emulation of the methods used in the USC/LA Times Poll and Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP Poll is likely in future elections. Effective execution of polling and accurate analysis of results are less certain.

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Remembering My Mother, Elinor Hager, 1939-2013

 

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My mother, Elinor Hager, on the set of Adam at 6 A.M. in 1969, one of her earliest screenwriting credits

My mother, Elinor Hager, passed away on October 21, 2013. A screenwriter for nearly 30 years, she was my teacher in communication, creativity and critical thinking. She always told me how proud she was of my teaching career. Everything I am and aspire to be comes from her.

Proverbs 6:20 (NIV)

My son, keep your fathers command and do not forsake your mothers teaching.

I study under my Heavenly Father, working to uphold his commandments. And I studied under my mother, Elinor Hager. I will never forsake her teaching.

Life with Mom was an education, an eccentric, delightful state of constant learning. No subject was off limits. No person or situation was insulated from her outrageous humor. Mom consumed the raw material of the world around her, fueling the imagination that generated a livelihood for her family, an identify for herself, a legacy for all of us who remember her.

My mother’s teaching…

As her eldest child, I became her apprentice. Mom’s love of science fiction became mine as we watched first-run episodes of Star Trek. I acquired her taste in music when she excitedly returned from the record store in 1967 and sat us down hear to Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band. Her respect for history and human events became clear when she woke me late one June night, led me to the television, and told me Bobby Kennedy had been shot. I needed to see. I needed to listen. I needed to learn. And I did, with Mom at my side.

My mother’s teaching…

As I sought my own voice as a writer and musician, I sought her counsel and approval. The critiques were pure if sometimes painful. Mom said that she cared for me too much to lie. The lessons and the love were just as pure.

The apprentice became a partner in screenwriting. It was the era of electric typewriters and stove-top popcorn. I contributed an action scene here, a plot twist there. Eventually I moved to the higher levels of character development, longterm story arcs and dialog.

My mother’s teaching…

To me, everything is a script. It is the framework Mom used to think, to write, to entertain, to achieve. It has been my guiding premise, the approach I take in everything I create today from a press release to a syllabus. I ask myself: Do we have authentic dialog? Will people believe in what I’m saying? Will they come back for more?

That’s why Mom’s passing is so hard. It constitutes lousy screenwriting by my standards–poorly structured, poorly timed, no dramatic farewell. But it’s not up to me. The Lord called my mother home is His good way and His good time. Fade out.

FADE IN:

AERIAL VIEW: HOLLYWOOD HILLS

Clouds part as we glide over the Hollywood Hills. PAN myriad houses clinging to the slopes until one small, perfect split-level home fills the screen.

POV: FRONT STEPS

The camera’s view ascends the stairway leading to the split-level. Someone is coming home.

INT. SPLIT-LEVEL HOME

JESUS CHRIST AND ELINOR HAGER

Jesus opens the front door and ushers Ellie inside.

TRACKING SHOT, HOME INTERIOR

The shag rug is deep. Captain Kirk issues commands from the console TV. A crowd murmurs and an orchestra tunes up before the Lonely Hearts Club Band begins its fanfare. 

RETURN TO JESUS AND ELINOR

Ellie gives her special, knowing laugh, reserved for the rare moments when someone has actually figured her out. Jesus leads her to the dining room table. 

CLOSER SHOT: TABLE

A Smith Corona thrums against the wooden tabletop. Eternal stocks of Jiffy-Pop popcorn and Eaton’s Corrasable Bond typing paper wait by the machine. Ellie takes her seat and launches into her next story. She looks back at the front door and smiles. 

JESUS AND SON AT FRONT DOOR

Jesus ushers in a newcomer, the son, just a boy in bangs and bellbottoms. Jesus steps away as the son runs toward his mother. 

                             SON

                    Mom, I didn’t get to say goodbye.

                             ELINOR

                    Say hello instead.

The son hugs his mother.

                             ELINOR

                    Get the door.

The son reopens the door for the children, grandchildren and loved ones coming to see Ellie, to hear the stories and learn the lessons, all per the script.

                                               FADE TO BLACK:

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Involuntary Transparency: Trump and Clinton

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Donald Trump recorded by a hot mic making lewd comments about women prior to a 2005 media appearance.

The Washington Post released a 2005 recording of Donald Trump making lewd comments about women, bragging about using his celebrity to grope them with impunity. WikiLeaks released emails detailing portions of Hillary Clinton’s paid speeches preceding her 2016 presidential run indicating a more favorable position on trade deals and banks than conveyed on the campaign trail as she fought off a formidable challenge on the left from Bernie Sanders.

Both Trump and Clinton are undergoing “Involuntary Transparency,” a concept I have blogged about previously:

Involuntary Transparency 2014

In 2010, I blogged about the concept of involuntary transparency, coined in a Forbes article on WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange. It amounts to the age-old act of leaking confidential information, amplified by digital technology that immortalizes damning content, facilitates its collection, and accelerates its publication. More then 40 years ago, Daniel Ellsberg brought the Pentagon Papers to light by commencing a difficult and time-consuming sequence of events: being an employee at the RAND Corporation, secretly photocopying thousands of pages of classified documents, and sharing them with major media. In the 21st century, insider status, Xerox machines, and The New York Times are not required to turn whispers into headlines.

Today, anyone can be an Ellsberg just as anyone can be a Zepruder. And just as easily, anyone can be an exposé subject. Assange and Edward Snowden have targeted the executive branch of the U.S. government as Ellsberg did. CEOs and celebrities now receive similar treatment as their private actions are captured in Nixonian archives, ready to be breached:

  • Donald Sterling lost ownership of the Los Angeles Clippers due to an audio recording of his racist views.
  • Ray Rice was tossed from the NFL with the posting of a security video showing him punching out his now-wife.
  • Stephen Collins was cast out of his acting career with the release of an audio recording in which he admitted child molestation.
  • Amy Pascal was revealed to partake in racist remarks about President Obama and overall boorish behavior when her emails as Sony Pictures co-chairman went public.

The perpetrators of involuntary transparency are frequently guilty of legal and moral transgressions themselves. Donald Sterling and Stephen Collins were recorded surreptitiously. Amy Pascal’s personal correspondence was part of the data trove stolen by hackers retaliating for “The Interview,” Sony Pictures’ comedy about Kim Jong-un. Daniel Ellsberg, Julian Assange and Edward Snowden all drew the ire of the U.S. government, with Ellsberg put on trial.

The right to privacy and the right to know constitute a dialectic, a tension of opposites. Abuses occur at both poles. Hackers consider anything on the Internet fair game. Posting celebrities’ private nude photos is not the equivalent of disclosing the methodology and depth of NSA electronic surveillance as the former holds scant right to know for the general public. Will the right to privacy and the right to know achieve synthesis, a new balance in the digital era?

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